2025 State of the County
2025 State of the County
On August 28, 2025, Peter Rupert spoke at the 2025 State of the County hosted by the Santa Barbara South Coast Chamber of Commerce. He examined forces affecting Santa Barbara County's economy, categorized as those "beyond our control" and "within our control."
The external forces beyond our control include tariffs (which have severely impacted U.S. wine exports to Canada, dropping from $30 million in January to under $1 million by June), Federal Reserve policy and inflation (with core CPI inflation hovering around 3%), and ICE enforcement activities (which have caused temporary disruptions in agricultural employment, with 30-40% of workers not showing up the day after raids, though most return within three days).
In contrast, the local factors within our control (regulations, housing, and wage policies) present significant challenges for economic growth. Employment growth since 2000 has been disappointing, with Santa Barbara County achieving only 15% growth compared to San Luis Obispo's impressive 35%, California's 27%, and the national average of 23%.
Housing construction has been severely constrained, with Santa Barbara City adding only 388 housing units between 2010-2020. The most dramatic policy consideration is a proposed $26 minimum wage for agricultural workers, which economic modeling suggests would be devastating for local agriculture - potentially forcing 100% of strawberry, broccoli, cauliflower, head lettuce, celery, and blackberry farmers out of business, with wine grapes being less affected (13.8% exit rate). The analysis estimates this could result in nearly $800 million in lost strawberry production alone, highlighting the critical importance of policy decisions on the county's agricultural economy. Click here to see the slides.
